To analyze the economic implications of transformative AI, it is instructive to examine how past technological revolutions ...

We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular residuals capturing the impact of individual firms and product categories, respectively. In advanced economies, ...

This paper introduces the concept of debt intolerance,' which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country ...

The Market Design Working Group, established in 2009 under the leadership of Susan Athey and Parag Pathak, is a preeminent research forum in the field of market design. The working group meets ...

Electricity and Information Technology (IT) are perhaps the two most important general purpose technologies (GPTs) to date. We analyze how the U.S. economy reacted to them. The Electricity and IT eras ...

Differentiated product consumption choices made without full information can lead to welfare losses from regret and missed opportunities, but a lack of post-purchase usage data has prevented their ...

Any fiscal path is sustainable if future fiscal policy responds sufficiently to high deficits. Previous work found that Congress reduced the deficit during 1984-2003 when projected deficits rose. We ...

We revisit one of the central empirical findings of the political economy literature that higher income per capita causes democracy. Existing studies establish a strong cross-country correlation ...

This paper presents an overview of the Bretton Woods experience. From an historical perspective. I analyze its performance relative to other international monetary regimes. its origins. its operation.

This paper presents the first analysis of the life course outcomes through late midlife (around age 55) for the participants of the iconic Perry Preschool Project, an experimental high-quality ...

This paper defines and tests a form of market efficiency called market dexterity which requires that asset prices adjust instantaneously and completely in response to new information. Examining the ...

Global banks played a significant role in the transmission of the 2007 to 2009 crisis to emerging market economies. We examine the relationships between adverse liquidity shocks on main ...